Pakistan is facing a most defining moment in its history with serious implications to US security interests in the region. As stated in earlier analyses, the United States should have long ago adopted alternative approaches to Pakistan. It did not, and consequently, the situation in Pakistan today is much more dangerous. It is not, however, [...]

The most recent military development on the Korean Peninsula cannot be seen outside the overall context of US-China relations. In recent weeks, the United States and China have been engaged in a “currency war,” underscoring the race between Washington and Beijing for global influence in the 21st century. Beijing accuses Washington of deliberately devaluing the [...]

The assassination of the elusive Mughniyah on February 12 could be a major turning point in the Middle East – but in what direction? The answer to that question depends heavily on identifying who was behind the assassination. Israel? If Hezbollah truly believes that Israel was behind his assassination, then we will witness a major [...]

History is a Prologue The Middle East has undergone a sea change at the geostrategic level, presenting U.S. policymakers with a new set of serious challenges. Today’s Middle East order is being shaped by these fundamental realities: Egypt and Jordan are no longer key shapers of regional politics and are fast becoming irrelevant to the [...]

On the eve of President Bush’s historic visit to the Middle East, a question that Americans concerned with foreign policy should be asking themselves is: what Middle East?Irrespective of one’s past or present positions on the Iraq war and how the United States got there, the reality is that the war has transformed the political [...]

In Part I of this series, we discussed the emergence of a U.S. strategy towards the Middle East built on two pillars – Oil Security and Israel Security – and the introduction of a third pillar in support of the first two – the Peace Process. In this part, we explore the impact of regional [...]

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto will unfortunately speed up the destabilization of Pakistan for the following reasons: • Bhutto’s supporters will blame President Musharraf for her death, making a rapprochement with Musharraf very difficult. Bhutto had repeatedly requested adequate security measures from the government of Pakistan but was constantly denied that protection. • Sharif on [...]

In part II of this series, we focused on Oil Security and the regional developments that shaped the environment leading to the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States. In this part, we will explore the root causes for the instability in the environment affecting Israel Security and shaking its foundations. 1. Israel Security: [...]

The United States has ignored for too long the brewing turmoil in Pakistan. All signs point to the possibility of civil war breaking out in Pakistan in the very near future. The ingredients for such a war are already in place: President Musharraf’s power has been seriously weakened; there is a major rift among elements [...]

On July 11, 1947, a ship carrying more than 4,000 Jews sailed from the south of France and headed to Palestine. The Zionist movement endeavoring to create the State of Israel as a home for the Jews sought to “break the embargo imposed by Great Britain on immigration to Palestine.” On July 18, British naval [...]