The United States has ignored for too long the brewing turmoil in Pakistan. All signs point to the possibility of civil war breaking out in Pakistan in the very near future. The ingredients for such a war are already in place: President Musharraf’s power has been seriously weakened; there is a major rift among elements [...]

The Middle East through a New Prism – Part II Almost everyone involved in national security affairs, within and outside the government, talks about the threat that Iran poses to U.S. interests in the Middle East as follows: -    Iran was responsible for terrorist attacks against the United States in 1983 in Lebanon -    Iran [...]

The presidential elections of June have brought to the surface, like never before, the deep rifts that exist within Iranian society and its power structure.  What is really happening there? And more importantly, what should the United States do about it?  The delicate and serious nature of the current situation in Iran requires a very [...]

Time Is Running Out In several Security Debrief posts published on this site in 2007 and 2008, I discussed the great urgency required by the United States to adopt a different strategy towards Pakistan and I also articulated the options and steps necessary to stop Pakistan’s fast slide towards instability.  Unfortunately, the United States has [...]

ASMEA, the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa, held its second annual conference in the Washington area on October 22 – 24, 2009. More than 50 scholarly papers have been selected for presentation at this well-attended and successful conference. The luncheon keynote speaker on Friday, October 23rd was Professor Bernard Lewis. [...]

On July 11, 1947, a ship carrying more than 4,000 Jews sailed from the south of France and headed to Palestine. The Zionist movement endeavoring to create the State of Israel as a home for the Jews sought to “break the embargo imposed by Great Britain on immigration to Palestine.” On July 18, British naval [...]

History is a Prologue The Middle East has undergone a sea change at the geostrategic level, presenting U.S. policymakers with a new set of serious challenges. Today’s Middle East order is being shaped by these fundamental realities: Egypt and Jordan are no longer key shapers of regional politics and are fast becoming irrelevant to the [...]

In Part I of this series, we discussed the emergence of a U.S. strategy towards the Middle East built on two pillars – Oil Security and Israel Security – and the introduction of a third pillar in support of the first two – the Peace Process. In this part, we explore the impact of regional [...]

In part II of this series, we focused on Oil Security and the regional developments that shaped the environment leading to the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States. In this part, we will explore the root causes for the instability in the environment affecting Israel Security and shaking its foundations. 1. Israel Security: [...]

With Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Bush Administration drastically transformed the Middle East and dramatically altered the balance of power in that region.  Unfortunately, instead of quickly reassessing the new dynamics on the ground and developing a new and more appropriate prism for viewing the region, the Bush Administration pursued the same old policies of the [...]