Reports that Al Qaeda is imploding are vastly exaggerated. Below are some facts that shed some light on the issue. 1. Sunnis constitute approximately 85% of the Moslem world. Fatwas by Sunni Wahhabi and Salafi leaders in Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Sunni Moslem world are gaining popularity among religious Sunnis around the [...]

Pakistan: Sliding into Chaos The resignation of President Musharraf brings to an end an important yet turbulent chapter in US – Pakistan relations since 9/11. The United States faces today a Pakistan that lacks any form of consensus for the following reasons: *The Pakistan People’s Party under the leadership of Mr. Asif Zardari and the [...]

“We plan to eliminate the state of Israel and establish a purely Palestinian state. We will make life unbearable for Jews by psychological warfare and population explosion. . . . We Palestinians will take over everything, including all of Jerusalem.” “Peace for us means the destruction of Israel. We are preparing for an all-out war, [...]

At first glance, the positions of the three major Presidential candidates regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions do not seem much different. All three express concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and all three seem committed to stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Taking a second look at the candidates’ positions, however, one finds differences mainly centering on [...]

What should the United States expect form the March 14th parliamentary elections? How should the United States deal with the Iranian regime? Are more sanctions the answer? Is military pressure an option? What about direct diplomatic engagement? Background In 1997, the Iranian people expressed their hunger for change by electing Ayatollah Khatami to the Presidency [...]

Pakistan is facing a most defining moment in its history with serious implications to US security interests in the region. As stated in earlier analyses, the United States should have long ago adopted alternative approaches to Pakistan. It did not, and consequently, the situation in Pakistan today is much more dangerous. It is not, however, [...]

The assassination of the elusive Mughniyah on February 12 could be a major turning point in the Middle East – but in what direction? The answer to that question depends heavily on identifying who was behind the assassination. Israel? If Hezbollah truly believes that Israel was behind his assassination, then we will witness a major [...]

On the eve of President Bush’s historic visit to the Middle East, a question that Americans concerned with foreign policy should be asking themselves is: what Middle East?Irrespective of one’s past or present positions on the Iraq war and how the United States got there, the reality is that the war has transformed the political [...]

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto will unfortunately speed up the destabilization of Pakistan for the following reasons: • Bhutto’s supporters will blame President Musharraf for her death, making a rapprochement with Musharraf very difficult. Bhutto had repeatedly requested adequate security measures from the government of Pakistan but was constantly denied that protection. • Sharif on [...]

The United States has ignored for too long the brewing turmoil in Pakistan. All signs point to the possibility of civil war breaking out in Pakistan in the very near future. The ingredients for such a war are already in place: President Musharraf’s power has been seriously weakened; there is a major rift among elements [...]